USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- FOMC Rate decision (0.25%).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US house price index –July- (0.3%) and ABC Consumer confidence –Sep20- (-46).
3. USD traded within half a cent of a one-year low against the euro today as stocks in Europe advances and on speculation the global economic recovery is gathering strength, reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven.
4. The dollar remained weak today as Europe’s manufacturing and service industries expanded for a 2nd month in September, suggesting the euro-region economy is gathering strength.
On the upside:
• Some recovery after recent retreat
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise further if there is encouraging events that boost equities market.
To monitor:
•Today’s Fed Rate decision.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 10:50GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Merchandise trade balance –Aug- (157.0B Yen), Japan Adjusted Merchandise trade balance –Aug- (187.7B Yen), Japan Merchandise trade exports –Aug- (-36.5), Japan Merchandise trade imports –Aug- (-41.6), Japan Nomura Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (54.4) and Japan All industry activity index –July- (0.8%).
2. JPY remained strong against most currencies today as stocks in Asia dropped, while European stocks retreats, reducing carry trade demand.
3. Stocks in Europe remained strong today as IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn called on leaders from the G-20 nations to maintain efforts to pull the world economy out of a recession, warning that the crisis isn’t over.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today on selling pressure.
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance today on buying interest amid encouraging news.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Today’s Fed Rate decision.
•Today’s Japan economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 10:50GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- France Consumer spending –YoY-MoM- (-1.3% - -1.0%), France Business confidence indicator –Sep- (85), France Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (52.5), France Services PMI –Sep- (52.2), Germany Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (49.6), Germany Services PMI –Sep- (52.2), Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI –Sep- (49.0) and Euro-zone Services PMI –Sep- (50.6).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italian Trade balance total –July- (3600M Euros), Germany IFO Expectations –Sep- (96.6), Germany IFO Business climate –Sep- (92.0) and Germany IFO Current assessment –Sep- (87.7).
3. EUR rose to near a one year high against the dollar today as stocks in Europe rose and on speculation the global economic recovery is gathering strength, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding assets and reduces demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
•US stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
• May fall if stocks retreat.
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today’s Fed Rate decision.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CHF – EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF – EUR/USD - EUR/JPY -
-According to 11:25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil fell today despite the dollar weaken after an industry report showed an increase in fuel supplies in the US adding to signs demand has yet to recover in the world’s largest energy consumer.
2. Oil price remained weak today as analyst said a report today may show crude oil inventories increased by 1.45Million barrels and gasoline supplies increased 3.8Million barrels last week.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may recover after recent retreat.
•Further retreat as investors exit position ahead of weekend.
To monitor:
•Today’s storage report.
•Today’s Fed Rate decision.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $71 and high $71 (Today’s rate decision, storage report, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11:25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11:25AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises in early trading session
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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