USD
Brief:
1. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US housing starts –Aug- (598k), US Initial jobless claims –Sep12- (545k) and US Philadelphia Fed –Sep- (14.1).
2. USD strengthens against most currencies today as investors exit position to lock in profit after recent decline and stocks in Asia and Europe decline boosted appeal of the dollar as safe haven.
3. The dollar remained strong against the euro today on renewed concern the financial crisis in Europe will be prolonged, damping demand for the euro region’s assets.
On the upside:
• Further recovery after recent retreat as investors exit position to lock in profit.
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise further if there is encouraging events that boost equities market.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 10:50GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Publication Japan leading index –July- (82.5) and Japan Coincident index –July- (89.8).
2. JPY strengthen against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe decline, reducing carry trade demand and Japan Leading index is forecast to fall by 0.50 in July from Jun.
3. European stocks remained weak today as today on speculation that a 6-month rally in global equity markets has outpaced the prospects for earnings, spurring speculation that a correction will come soon.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today on selling pressure as investors exit position ahead of weekend.
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance today on buying interest amid encouraging economic figures.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 10:50GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Germany PPI –YoY-MoM- (-6.90% - 0.50%) and Euro-zone Current account –July- (6.6B Euros)
2. EUR fell against most currencies today despite a report showed Germany producer prices rose for the 1st time in 11 months in August, as declining stocks in Asia and Europe boosted demand for the dollar as safe haven.
3. The euro remained weak against most currencies today on renewed concern the financial crisis in Europe will be prolonged and on speculation that a 6-month rally in global equity markets has outpaced the prospects for earnings.
On the upside:
•US stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
• May fall if stocks retreat.
•Further retreat on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CHF – EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 10:50GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil pared its weekly gains today as the dollar strengthen and as investors sold contracts to lock in profit after prices climbed above $73 a barrel this week on speculation demand will rise.
2. Oil price may fall next week as demand for crude oil may drop as refiners idle units to perform repairs before heating-oil consumption increases in winter.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen after recent retreat.
•Further retreat as investors exit position ahead of weekend.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $72 and high $72 (US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 10:50GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (10:50AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises in early trading session
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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