USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US CPI –YoY-Mom- (-1.7% - 0.3%), US CPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (1.4% - 0.1%),US Current account balance -2ndQ- (-$92.0B), US TIC Flows –July- (No forecast figures) and US Industrial production –Aug- (0.7%).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US Advance retail sales –Aug- (2.7%), US Retail sales less autos –Aug- (1.1%), US PPI –YoY-MoM- (-4.3% - 1.7%), US PPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (2.3% - 0.2%), US Empire manufacturing –Sep- (18.88), US Business inventories –July- (-1.0%) and ABC Consumer confidence –Sep13- (-49).
3. USD dropped to the weakest level this year against the euro today as global stocks rose and before a report forecast to show US manufacturers boosted output, reducing demand for the relative safety of the greenback.
4. The dollar remained weak today as yesterday, Fed Chairman Bernanke, who yesterday said the recession has likely ended, boosting investors risk appetite and reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven, while encourage investors to use the dollar for carry trade.
On the upside:
• Some recovery after recent retreat.
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise further if there is encouraging events that boost equities market.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 11:35GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Tertiary Industry index -July- (0.50%) and BOJ Rate decision (0.1%)
2. JPY strengthen against most currencies today after incoming Japan Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii as saying Japan’s new government is opposed to intervening in currency markets unless swings become excessive.
3. The yen remained strong despite global stocks rally as investors prefer to use the dollar for carry trades on record low interest rate and on anticipation global economy recovery will reduce demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today on some selling pressure.
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance today on buying interest amid encouraging economic figures.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 11:35GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Italy CPI EU-Harmonized –YoY-MoM- (0.1% - 0.2%), Euro-zone CPI –YoY-MoM- (-0.20% - 0.30%) and Euro-zone CPI Core –Aug- (1.3%).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Euro-zone Trade balance –July- (1.1B Euros).
3. EUR rose to the highest level against the dollar this year against the euro before a report forecast to show US manufacturers boosted output, increases investors risk appetite and reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
•US stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•Further decline as retreating stocks may increase demand for the dollar.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 11:35GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil rose today as global stocks rallied and as the dollar fell to the lowest level this year against the euro, increases appeal of commodities as safe haven.
2. Oil price remain strong today as analysts said a report today will show commercially held US crude oil inventories likely declined 2.5Million barrels while gasoline stockpiles increased 1.35Million barrels.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may recover after recent retreat.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Today’s storage report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $71 and mid $71 (Today’s US economic releases, storage report, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11:35GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11:35AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly recover in early trading session
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly retreats in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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