USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- Average weekly hours –Aug- (8.8%), Average Hourly earnings –YoY-MoM- (2.2% - 0.1%), US Change in Manufacturing payrolls –Aug- (-60k), US Unemployment rate –Aug- (9.5%), US NFP –Aug- (-230k).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US Initial jobless claims –Aug29- (570k), US ISM Non-manufacturing composite –Aug- (48.4) and ICSC Chain store sales –Aug- (-2.0%).
3. USD fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe advances, reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven and as investors bets that recovery in Europe will be faster than in the US.
4. European stocks rose for a second day as metals rallied and strategists increased their year-end forecasts for the region’s equity indexes. U.S. futures fluctuated before a report that may show payrolls fell.
On the upside:
• Stocks may retreat today if analysts and economists undermine positive economic figures.
On the downside:
• Stocks may slightly rises on buying interest and on speculation G-20 finance minister show no rush to exit stimulus.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 12:25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Capital Spending -2ndQ- (-21.7%).
2. JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe rose, increase investors’ risk appetite and carry trade demand.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today as investor may exit position ahead of weekend.
On the downside:
•Stocks may advance today if economic figures is as forecast.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 12:25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Italy Trade balance -June- (631.0M Euros)
2. EUR strengthen against the dollar today as stocks in Asia and European stocks rose for a 2nd day as metals rallied, leading raw material producer share higher and reduces demand for the dollar as risk appetite grows
3. The euro remained strong as ECB President Trichet said the euro region’s recovery from recession will be bumpy and signaled officials are in no rush to withdraw emergency stimulus measures.
On the upside:
• US stocks may rise on buying interest; dampen demand for the dollar as safe haven.
•Stocks may climb today on economic figures.
On the downside:
•Further decline as retreating stocks may increase demand for the dollar.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/JPY– EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 12:25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil traded near $68 today as the dollar fell and on on speculation OPEC will keep output steady as gasoline demand slows with the end of the US summer driving season.
2. Crude oil remain strong today as economist said before a report that employers in the US probably cut another 230,000 jobs in August, and the jobless rate increased, underscoring threats to consumer spending.
On the upside:
•Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may slightly strengthen if stocks fall.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Speculation on tomorrow’s storage report.
•Hurricane season.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around low $68 and mid $68(Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12:25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12:25AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets slightly rises in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly rise in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US stock markets slightly weaken in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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