USD
Brief:
1. Tomorrow’s US economic releases, -forecast- US ISM Non-manufacturing composite –Sep- (50.0).
2. Last Friday’s US economic releases, -actual- US NFP –Sep- (-263k), US Unemployment rate –Sep- (9.8%), US Change in manufacturing payrolls –Sep- (-51k), US Average hourly earnings –YoY-MoM- (2.5% - 0.1%) and US Factory orders –Aug- (-0.8%).
3. USD fell against most currencies today as stocks in Europe strengthens, reducing appeal for the dollar as safe haven and as the G-7 finance chiefs refrained from calling for measures to stop the US currency’s decline.
4. The dollar remained weak today amid last week Alex Weber of Bundesbank said the Germany economy probably expanded around 0.75% in the 3rd quarter from the previous 3-month period.
On the upside:
•Stocks may decline on selling pressure if today’s ISM manufacturing index is worse than expected
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise today on buying interest.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Long: USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD – EUR/USD -
-According to 11:30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks in Europe rose, increasing carry trade demand and as Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said the government will intervene if the yen moves in a biased direction.
2. Stocks in Europe remained strong today on speculation a report will show US service industries stabilized overshadowed forecast that equity markets may drop in the coming months.
On the upside:
•US stocks may retreat if today’s figures are weaker than expected
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance on buying interest.
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
• Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 11:30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy Services PMI –Sep- (48.5), France Services PMI –Sep- (53.2), Germany Services PMI –Sep- (52.1), Euro-zone Services PMI –Sep- (50.9), Euro-zone Sentix investors confidence –Oct- (-12.6) and Euro-zone Retail sales –YoY-MoM- (-2.6% - -0.2%)
2. EUR strengthen against most currencies today as stocks in Europe rose, reducing appeal of the dollar as safe haven and as reports showed Europe’s manufacturing and services industries expanded more than initially estimated in September, adding to signs the economy is recovering.
3. The euro remained strong today despite the IMF last week said central banks in Europe should keep interest rates low and possibly extend non-standard stimulus measures because the region’s recovery is likely to be slow and fragile.
On the upside:
•US stocks may advance on short-covering on buying interest.
On the downside:
• The dollar may strengthen if economic figures today is weaker than expected.
•Some retreat on profit taking.
To monitor:
• Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CHF – EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 11:30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil fell today despite the dollar weaken on concern demand in the US will be slow to rebound as the nation’s jobless rate increased.
2. Oil prices remained weak today despite stocks in Europe rise and reports Europe’s manufacturing and services industries expanded more than initially estimated in September, as last week labor report spurred concern US economy will be slow to recover.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance on short-covering
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen further on safe haven demand.
To monitor:
• Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $69 and high $69 (Today’s economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11:30GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11:30AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in early trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in early trading session
•JPY strengthens in early trading session.
•EUR weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil weakens in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in mid trading session.
• US capital slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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